Harley-Davidson (HOG) is the parent company for groups of companies doing business as Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services operating in two segments: the Motorcycles & Related Products. The stock is currently trading around $55.04 at the lower end of its 52 week range of $53.04-$70.41. The stock has been under performing the market this year falling 16.51% year to date. HOG is scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell tomorrow, and the stock is up $0.06 or 0.10% today on the session ahead of the close.

Over the past 12 quarters HOG has rallied on earnings day 4 times with an average move of 3.87%. The stock appears bearish on a chart going into the release having traded below or in the Ichimoku Cloud for the past few months since March on the daily bars. Over the past 12 quarters HOG has rallied from earnings to the nearest options expiration 8 times with an average move of 6.00%. The stock looks as if it could rip to the upside in today’s session following the recent change in trend. Investors are expecting to see how the company performs after already releasing to the public a lower shipment order of 88,000 motorcycles as compared to last years 92,000 order. The company anticipates operating income of the Financial Services segment to decline due to higher credit losses and contracting net interest.

The options market is currently implying a move of around $4.00 or 7.2% in HOG by this Friday’s close giving us targets of $51.04 and $59.04.

Andrew Keene

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